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Global Companies Lower Profit Forecasts Amid Economic Headwinds and Weak Chinese Market

As the second-quarter earnings season unfolds, many global companies are revising their full-year sales and profit expectations downward. The dual pressures of persistently high interest rates and a sluggish Chinese economy have dampened consumer sentiment worldwide, casting a shadow over corporate earnings growth.


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Earnings Season: A Mixed Bag

Major corporations such as McDonald's, Nissan, Tesla, Nestlé, and Unilever have reported results that, while largely in line with expectations, have failed to impress investors. According to Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, this season has been "very mixed in terms of results," with the prevailing "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment starting to squeeze corporate earnings and revenue growth.


Focus on Tech and Consumer Giants

This week promises to be crucial, with tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Samsung Electronics set to report their earnings. Alongside them, automotive behemoth Toyota Motor, energy leaders Exxon Mobil and Shell, and European retailers L'Oreal and Adidas will also release their results. A common theme among these companies is the impact of rising interest rates, which have curtailed consumer spending, and the underperformance of China's economy, which continues to be a significant concern.



The China Factor

McDonald's reported its first global sales decline in 13 quarters, attributing the drop largely to economic weakness in China. Other companies, including Unilever and Visa, echoed these sentiments, highlighting that Chinese consumers are hesitant to spend due to concerns about a protracted property downturn and job insecurity. Stefan-Guenter Bauknecht, portfolio manager at DWS, noted, "The Chinese are not willing to spend because they are afraid about the future."


Earnings Trends and Consumer Sentiment

In the United States, earnings per share have risen nearly 12% from a year ago, marking the strongest quarter in the last ten. Europe also saw a 4% rise in earnings, a welcome change after a series of lackluster quarters. However, consumer weakness has been flagged across multiple sectors, with companies like Nestlé and Unilever reporting sales growth below expectations. Nestlé CEO Mark Schneider noted, "There is value-seeking behavior among consumers, especially in the low-income range."


Challenges in the Auto and EV Markets

The automotive sector is also feeling the pinch. In the U.S., high inventory levels and logistical challenges have hurt profits for Ford, Stellantis, and Nissan. Electric vehicle leader Tesla disappointed investors with its latest results, and the broader EV market faces challenges, as indicated by LG Energy Solution's forecast of a 20% revenue decline due to slowing global EV demand. China's CATL also reported a 13% drop in second-quarter revenue.


Bright Spots in Tech and AI

Despite these challenges, not all news has been grim. Google's parent company Alphabet saw promising growth in cloud computing revenue. Industrial giant 3M and automaker General Motors reported strong earnings, while Johnson & Johnson and JP Morgan also delivered robust results. In the tech sector, Asian chipmakers like TSMC have benefited from the global AI boom, with AI demand driving a 56% rise in TSMC's shares in 2024 alone. However, high investor expectations may limit further stock price increases, as seen with AI leader Nvidia.


Market Outlook

The MSCI International index has gained 11% this year, though recent sell-offs suggest investor caution. The prospect of lower interest rates remains a key market focus, with analysts like Rick Meckler from Cherry Lane Investments suggesting that this could prevent a significant lowering of earnings projections for the next year.

As global companies navigate these economic challenges, the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the outlook for the rest of the year.


Source: Reuters

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